The bonds of Ericsson, Tyco and ABB. All three companies had credit-specific issues in the past and seemed to have overcome those at the time of writing (December, 2003). Their lowest prices were quoted almost at the same time (October, 2002) where risk tolerance reached the lowest level in a decade (measured by VIX). The important point to illustrate is that nonsystematic risks induced the first price falls in all three companies at different points in time. Idiosyncratic risks were responsible for the first massive downward price movement. In this situation, an assessment of the credit should not be based only on credit fundamentals but every credit portfolio manager has to evaluate what volatility his portfolio can sustain because the main task for a high-yield portfolio manager is to manage risk. Technical factors have to be considered because it is likely that market liquidity for a troubled bond will disappear quickly which will result in a “free fall” in price.
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