A simple approach is to differentiate between short-term and long-term liquidity constraints and the reasons leading to the constraints. If deteriorating fundamentals are the driving force, an indepth credit analysis should specify the point in time when a company will run out of cash. The thing an investor has to decide is whether current trading levels compensate sufficiently for the uncertainty of improving fundamentals and hence the ability to preserve enough liquidity in the long term.
If litigation (e.g. asbestos, tobacco) forces a company to trade at distressed levels, usually short-term liquidity is in place so that the risk of an imminent default is low. If a company cannot resolve its litigation issues in the long term, bankruptcy is then a probable scenario.
Accounting fraud is accompanied by the most severe price movements. The analysis of sources and uses of cash will help to determine the recovery value. Of course, it is in such cases almost impossible to find a reliable fair value of the company’s debt so that enormous price swings in the bond prices can be expected on a daily basis. Equity value will converge towards zero within a short period of time.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 at 11:41 am and is filed under last will, making money, market cycles, presentation. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
